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Date:      March 2024

Author:  Tom Karmel, Mackenzie Research Institute

This paper analyses the outcomes of certificates III and IV focussing on the earnings and gender pay gap. These qualifications form the backbone of the VET sector – without them the VET sector would disappear. They are also the backbone of the apprenticeship and traineeship system. Our interest is in the variety of courses, their importance and the range of incomes they generate. They also underpin a story of sex segregation – men and women tend to undertake quite different types of certificates reflecting the gendered nature of the labour market.

Read more on the Certificates III and IV: earnings, sex segregation, and the male/female earnings gap (PDF 457KB).

Date: November 2023

Author: Tom Karmel

Analyses the increase in credentials in the labour market between 2011 and 2021.

Read more: The return to education – an occupational perspectivw (PDF 538KB)

Date: September 2022

Author: Tom Karmel, Mackenzie Research Institute

In this paper, we put diplomas under the microscope, and look at what they are, who does them, how numbers are trending, and how outcomes have fared.

Diplomas have an important role as the highest level of qualification offered in VET. They are a very diverse group of qualifications and the student body is also diverse, covering all age groups and all educational backgrounds – from not having completed year 12 to already having a diploma or higher qualification, however the provision of government funded diplomas has declined very significantly.

If we exclude health and education, the number of commencements has declined by around 50% between 2004 and 2020. We will attempt to provide an explanation of these very significant changes. The most obvious one is that higher education has expanded at VET’s expense, and in many fields the higher education expansion is mirrored by VET contraction.

Discussion paper

Read more: What about Diplomas? (PDF-784kb)

Date: April 2022

Author: Tom Karmel, Mackenzie Research Institute

We have seen very significant declines in VET activity since 2015 and a further decline as COVID-19 emerged in 2020, however the declines in completions were more muted (that is, much of the decline in student numbers was in those not completing a full qualification). Of course, this decline in VET activity reflects structural change that was responding to the needs of the labour market. Certainly, university education has been expanding at VET’s expense and we have seen degrees become the entry level qualification for many occupations.

In looking at the impact of COVID-19 on apprentices and trainees the government appeared to have addressed any short-term declines in numbers, however we are not so optimistic about the rest of VET. This paper concentrates on VET qualification completions at the diploma or higher level, and Certificates III and IV. Lower level and non-AQF qualifications were assumed to be preparatory in nature and of less relevance to skills formation.

Discussion paper

Read more: The VET sector post COVID-19 (PDF-543kb)

Date: December 2021

Author: Tom Karmel, Mackenzie Research Institute

The purpose of this paper is to speculate on the impact of COVID-19 on the number of apprentices and trainees and the consequent supply of skills.

In 2020 governments moved very quickly to introduce programs to underpin the system, at a time in which the labour market was in turmoil. Subsequent increases in the level of commencements support the notion that the policies were broadly successful in increasing commencements.

However, the story is more complicated, and it is necessary to delve into occupational level data. In many occupations a serious decline in the first year was more than offset by increases in the next. In particular, commencement numbers were unseasonably high in the December quarter 2020, and seasonably high in the March quarter 2021.

Commencements are a leading indicator of what is happening in apprenticeships and traineeships, but it is completions that indicate the level of skills formation and we investigate what is likely to occur over the next few years in this regard.

Discussion paper

Read more: The impact of COVID-19 on Apprentices and Trainees.pdf (PDF-1.2mb)

Date: September 2021

Author: Tom Karmel, Mackenzie Research Institute

Pre-apprenticeships or pre-vocational training is seen as being meritorious in the same way that the apprenticeship model, with its combination of employment and training, is seen as an ideal model for vocational training.

The motivation behind this paper is to test whether pre-apprenticeships (and pre-traineeships and pre-vocational training more generally) are a model worth pursuing or whether they are just another element of lower level Vocational Education and Training.

An issue with discussion of pre-apprenticeships or pre-vocational training is that it is not possible to identify them in the official statistics. This means that it is difficult to identify them and judge their merits. If we were serious about pre-vocational training, we would need to clearly define its attributes. Are they primarily intended to facilitate entry into an apprenticeship or traineeship, or should they have a broader purpose? Should they be more than a lower level qualification in an occupational area?

Discussion paper

Download The Efficacy of Pre-apprenticeships (PDF - 499kb)

Date: February 2020

Author: Bruce Mackenzie, Mackenzie Research Institute

Co-contributor: Karen King, Holmesglen Institute

The discussion paper Where to from here? Why Australia needs a broader tertiary framework argues university colleges could be a key mechanism to strengthen and enhance the reputation of the Vocational and Educational Training (VET) sector.

Since raising the school-leaving age in 2010, more students now complete Year 12 than ever before. Approximately 50 per cent of students enrol in universities, and for the remainder, the choices made and the outcomes can be mediocre.

The primary destination for many non-university entrants is into temporary, part-time and poor quality employment. For those who elect to enter the VET sector, a significant proportion of Year 12 non-completers go into Certificate IV and above and a large proportion of completers go into Certificates I to III.

The Australian Government’s reforms, in relation to university colleges, can be a key mechanism to strengthen and enhance the reputation of VET and produce positive outcomes and pathways for secondary students. University colleges can become powerful new and different 21st century tertiary institutions.

Discussion paper

Read more:  Where to from here? Why Australia needs a broader tertiary sector (PDF - 125kb)

Date: August 2019

Author: Bruce Mackenzie, Mackenzie Research Institute

The discussion paper Reforming Tertiary Education in Australia reviews the basis upon which tertiary education is constructed in Australia.

It suggests the theoretical underpinnings for Higher Education are flawed as a result of a misconception about the drivers of student access and success, and that the underpinnings of vocational education in Australia are based on discarded and unproven ideologies.

The proposition is advanced that in any reform of tertiary education the starting point has to be at the upper secondary education level.

Drawing on an understanding of tertiary systems in Nordic countries, Germany and the nascent UK initiatives, a framework for reform is advanced that collapses Certificates I to III into the upper secondary professional certificate which is taught primarily in TAFE institutions. A minimum requirement of the upper secondary certificate is standards in literacy and numeracy together with digital competence.

An additional strand is added to Australia’s tertiary education framework through the creation of a binary system with a focus on applied universities. These universities are professional universities/university colleges and focus on applied learning underpinned by adult learning concepts and extensive lower level vocational programs.

These applied universities are designed to enhance diversity and provide an unencumbered pathway for young and mature age students to undertake advanced tertiary studies.

Issues are explored in regard to the advantages and barriers to the proposed reforms.

Reforming tertiary education in Australia

Discussion Paper

Download the discussion paper (PDF - 85kb)

Supplementary Paper

Download the supplementary paper (PDF - 85kb)

The questions in the Skills for Victoria’s Growing Economy Issues Paper raise complex concerns that are directly impacted by a range of other factors such as industry investment, industrial relations, industry policy and the state of the economy. Clearly, an issue for vocational education is the amount of guidance the sector is given in regard to real employment needs for quality jobs.

This paper discusses the importance of a balanced workforce in the development of innovative, productive economies and socially inclusive societies. It focuses on the importance of the intermediate workforce. It argues that three education sectors (upper secondary, vocational and higher education) play complementary roles in skill formation and development, whether in supporting students to enter into further education and/or gain employment.

A central issue raised in the paper relates to the contribution that post-secondary education makes to productivity and occupational mobility, particularly regarding transitioning from low skilled work to intermediate skills and raises issues based on evidence about the effectiveness of this framework.

Since 2000, upper secondary and tertiary education in Australia has been planned around

issues of productivity, transitioning from a manufacturing to a service economy, and ensuring that the appropriate skill mix, in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, were available to industry. Increasing year 12 completions and uncapping access to university education underpinned our skills formation framework.

Download the Skills for Victoria’s Growing Economy Issues Paper Response – Part 1 (PDF - 2,428kb)

Download the Skills for Victoria’s Growing Economy Issues Paper Response – Part 1 (Word - 981kb)

Date: May 2020

Author: Bruce Mackenzie Mackenzie Research Institute

Part 2 of the response to the Skills for Victoria’s Growing Economy Issues Paper puts forward some strategies that would assist people in the most vulnerable situations to improve their employment status. It provides information about who benefits most from lifelong learning.

Some of the factors that are key to lifelong learning relate to the importance of having or obtaining core skills; being able to access higher education that caters for different learning styles and is sympathetic to non-traditional learners especially adults; being able to access courses at flexible times, especially for adults, who want to study part-time; and offering suitable courses for those whose learning style is applied rather than theoretical.

It suggests that the shift to a competitive system should be evaluated in terms of costs to the taxpayer and whether the social and educational objectives that underpinned competition have in any way been achieved. Preliminary observations are that competition has been an expensive and fruitless exercise that has caused untold damage to the vocational education and training sector and has stifled the desire for lifelong learning.

Download the Skills for Victoria’s Growing Economy Issues Paper Response – Part 2 (PDF - 941kb)

Download the Skills for Victoria’s Growing Economy Issues Paper Response – Part 2 (Word - 350kb)

Part 2 - Lifelong Learning

Date: June 2020

Author: Bruce Mackenzie Mackenzie Research Institute